ABSTRACT
Faced with an unforeseen event such as the SARS-COV-2 pandemic, social research is called to monitor its consequences on public opinion. The article briefly describes the ResPOnsE COVID-19 project (Risposta dell’Opinione Pubblica all’Emergenza COVID-19) that the SPS TREND laboratory at the State University of Milan developed with this aim. To reconstruct the overall context of the ResPOnsE COVID-19 project, we first review various European experiences of survey research on the pandemic. Then, the article introduces the Rolling Cross-Section (RCS) research design which characterizes the project and its application to the case of the COVID-19 crisis in Italy. Finally, in the light of such a challenge, we discuss the opportunities and limitations of the project, broadening the look to survey research in general. © 2021 Societa Editrice il Mulino. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
The social and political implications of the COVID-19 pandemic are receiving increasing attention in the literature. This article aims to contribute to this fast-growing research programme by focusing on the degree to which Italian citizens perceive democratic institutions as effective in coping with crises like the COVID-19 emergency. We put forward a set of hypotheses whereby negative evaluations of the effectiveness of democracy can be associated with social proximity to the disease and with perceived health and economic threats. We also argued that political factors can interact with such threats. Moreover, we hypothesised that certain factors dealing with the concepts of social capital and civic culture can help inhibit negative opinions about the effectiveness of democracy. To test these hypotheses, we analysed public opinion data collected in Italy between April and July 2020 using a Rolling Cross-Section survey design. The data showed that evaluations of democracy became more negative with social proximity to the disease and with individual perceived vulnerability, understood in health and economic terms. Our findings also highlighted that certain social factors which "underpin" democracy moderated negative evaluations. Finally, political factors like ideology and government appraisal shaped the relationship between individual threats and evaluations of democracy.
ABSTRACT
While official science has given its answer to the question on the origin of the Coronavirus (animal to human transmission), alternative theories on human creation of the virus-purposely or inadvertently-have flourished. Those alternative theories can be easily located among the family of conspiracy theories, as they always assume some secretive activity of some groups acting on their self-interest and against the good of the many. The article assesses the prevalence of these beliefs during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, studies its development during the pandemic, and investigates its potential determinants. In particular, it analyses the relationship between beliefs in alternative theories on the origin of the virus and political orientation, by arguing that the association cannot be attributed to (politically) motivated reasoning, as the issue has not been highly politicized in the Italian context. Alternatively, the article suggests that the main factor driving beliefs in alternative accounts on the origins of the virus is institutional trust. Political orientation moderates its effects, depending on specific conditions (e.g. cue taking, position of the supported party either in government or opposition), and eventually reinforcing scepticism towards epistemic authorities for those with low trust in institutions. Data come from the ResPOnsE COVID-19 survey, carried out with daily samples from April to July 2020 (N > 15.000) to monitor the development of the Italian public opinion during the Coronavirus pandemic. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Società Italiana di Scienza Politica.